Structural Break Analysis in Beef Production of Turkey

Alhas Eroğlu N., Bozoğlu M., Bilgiç A., Topuz B. K., Başer U.

KSÜ Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi-KSU Journal of Agriculture and Nature, cilt.0, sa.0, ss.1-10, 2021 (ESCI)

Özet

Although Turkey has significantly increased beef production in the last fifty years via livestock protection and domestic support policies, self-sufficiency and price stability have not been sufficiently achieved. Forecasting is essential to analyze the structure of the beef market and evaluate the sector. This study aimed to forecast the beef production of Turkey by considering structural breaks. The data of the study was time series of beef production for the period 1961-2019 and it was obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute and, Food and Agriculture Organization. Data was analyzed and forecasted using ARIMA Model. The results indicated that ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the best-fitted model and beef production would regularly increase in four years period and reach 1,133,687 tons in 2023. This research concluded that despite two structural breaks of beef production in 1983 and 2009, imports and domestic support policies substantially shaped the trend of beef time series in the last decade in Turkey