Modeling and forecasting of monthly PM2.5 emission of Paris by periodogram-based time series methodology

AKDİ Y., GÖLVEREN E., Unlu K. D., Yucel M. E.

ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT, cilt.193, sa.10, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 193 Sayı: 10
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s10661-021-09399-y
  • Dergi Adı: ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), BIOSIS, CAB Abstracts, Compendex, EMBASE, Environment Index, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, Geobase, Greenfile, MEDLINE, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Harmonic regression, Air pollution, Time series analysis, Periodicity, PARTICULATE MATTER PM2.5, AMBIENT AIR-POLLUTION, HOURLY PM2.5, LUNG-CANCER, SOURCE APPORTIONMENT, PREMATURE MORTALITY, NEURAL-NETWORK, FINE, PM10, EXPOSURE
  • Atatürk Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

In this study, monthly particulate matter (PM2.5) of Paris for the period between January 2000 and December 2019 is investigated by utilizing a periodogram-based time series methodology. The main contribution of the study is modeling the PM2.5 of Paris by extracting the information purely from the examined time series data, where proposed model implicitly captures the effects of other factors, as all their periodic and seasonal effects reside in the air pollution data. Periodicity can be defined as the patterns embedded in the data other than seasonality, and it is crucial to understand the underlying periodic dynamics of air pollutants to better fight pollution. The method we use successfully captures and accounts for the periodicities, which could otherwise be mixed with seasonality under an alternative methodology. Upon the unit root test based on periodograms, it is revealed that the investigated data has periodicities of 1 year and 20 years, so harmonic regression is utilized as an alternative to Box-Jenkins methodology. As the harmonic regression displayed a better performance both in and out-of-sample forecasts, it can be considered as a powerful alternative to model and forecast time series with a periodic structure.