A Comparison Of Anfıs And Arıma Techniques In The Forecasting Of Electric Energy Consumption Of Tokat Province In Turkey

YAYAR R., HEKİM M., YILMAZ V., BAKIRCI F.

Journal of Economic and Social Studies, cilt.1, sa.2, ss.87-112, 2011 (ESCI) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 1 Sayı: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2011
  • Doi Numarası: 10.14706/jecoss11124
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of Economic and Social Studies
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.87-112
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Electric energy consumption, Forecasting, ANFIS, ARIMA, and Tokat
  • Atatürk Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

In this study, the electric energy demand of Tokat province was estimated by means of ANFIS and ARIMA techniques. Seven different forecasting experiments were implemented for the subscriber groups and the consumption of electric energy which is the dependent variable. The electric energy demand of the province for the first six months of the year 2011 was estimated by means of ANFIS and ARIMA techniques. The obtained results were compared and interpreted in order to illustrate the forecasting success of these techniques. We showed that the ANFIS is more appropriate than the ARIMA in point of the forecasting of electric consumption.