Estimation Model With Simultaneous Process of Turkey's Wheat Industry


Dortok A., AKSOY A.

KSU TARIM VE DOGA DERGISI-KSU JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE AND NATURE, vol.21, no.4, pp.580-586, 2018 (ESCI) identifier

Abstract

Wheat is an important agricultural product supplying the needs of food and nutrition of people concequentelly, basic needs of countries. Knowing dynamics of foreign trade and also formation of supply and demand of wheat is important since it has an important share in the world as well as Turkish economy. The aim of this study was to model the dimension of supply, demand, foreign trade and price of wheat by using a simultaneous system between 1961 and 2013. For this purpose, Generalized Moments Method as simultaneous estimation method has been estimated. In this study, the variables affecting the wheat production were the amount of wheat production in prior year, the producer price of wheat and corn, and the amount of product bought by TMO. Whereas, the variables affecting consumption were wheat prices and income per capita. The variables affecting export were decided to be wheat production, stock and exchange rate of dollar. The variables affecting import were found as rate of production meeting consumption and stocks, and lastly variables affecting price were presented as amount of stocks, fertilizer price and export.