Sustainable energy transition toward a zero‑carbon future in major Global South economies: Roles of green innovation, institutions, and geopolitical risk


ÇAĞLAR A. E., Naimoğlu M., DEMİRDAĞ İ.

Energy for Sustainable Development, cilt.93, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 93
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102050
  • Dergi Adı: Energy for Sustainable Development
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Compendex, Geobase, INSPEC
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Global South, Green innovation, Renewable energy transition, SDG-7, Zero‑carbon future
  • Atatürk Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study examines the renewable energy transition in five major Global South economies, namely Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Thailand, by focusing on the roles of green innovation, institutional quality, and geopolitical risk. Anchored in Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG-7), the study moves beyond conventional determinant-based approaches by framing energy transition as a sustainability governance process shaped by technological capacity, institutional credibility, and external geopolitical uncertainty. Using a balanced panel dataset for the five countries over 2002–2023, the analysis evaluates long-run associations between green innovation, regulatory quality, geopolitical risk, and renewable energy outcomes. The findings show that green innovation supports renewable energy transition, while institutional quality strengthens this process by improving policy credibility, investment conditions, and regulatory stability. By contrast, geopolitical risk constrains renewable energy deployment by increasing uncertainty and weakening long-term investment incentives. The results further suggest that progress toward SDG-7 in major emerging economies depends not only on technological advancement but also on institutions' ability to sustain innovation-oriented energy policies amid geopolitical instability. By integrating geopolitical risk into the innovation-institution nexus, this research offers a more context-sensitive explanation of renewable energy transition in emerging economies and provides policy-relevant insights for designing resilient SDG-7 strategies.