Atmospheric forcing uncertainty in flash flood hydrodynamics: Coupled NWP, radar and gauge comparisons in an orographically complex mountain catchment
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, cilt.144, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 144
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.pce.2026.104752
- Dergi Adı: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Chimica, Compendex, Geobase, INSPEC
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Flash floods, Hydrodynamic modeling, Mountain catchment, Numerical weather prediction, Rainfall uncertainty, Weather radar
- Atatürk Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study quantifies how rainfall forcing affects the spatial structure of flash flood depth, velocity, and integrated hazard in the Kırkgöze-Çipak Basin, Eastern Anatolia, Türkiye. Four rainfall scenarios were propagated through an InfoWorks ICM Rain-on-Grid model calibrated and independently validated with separate 2021 events: WRF and IFS numerical weather prediction outputs, weather radar estimates, and Thiessen gauge interpolation. Two events were analyzed: a dispersed event on 8 April 2022 and a concentrated convective event on 25 May 2020. The scenarios produced broadly consistent responses for the dispersed event, with area-weighted metrics differing by less than a factor of three. For the convective event, inter-source differences widened substantially. The area with depth above 0.5 m ranged from 2.158 km2 for WRF to 0.238 km2 for Radar, while the extreme hazard area ranged from 1.481 km2 to 0.008 km2. Cross-event analysis identified a directional reversal in extreme hazard area between NWP-derived and ground-based products, event-specific inter-source spread ratios of approximately three to twelve, spatial compression of the Radar-derived response, and differing depth and velocity responses across product families. These ratios are interpreted as empirical indicators for the analyzed events rather than generalized amplification factors. A matched infiltration sensitivity experiment for the convective event reduced all threshold-based hydrodynamic responses while preserving the rainfall-product ordering and slightly increasing inter-source variability. IFS and Traditional showed the strongest pairwise spatial agreement, indicating inter-product similarity. The findings support event-dependent multi-source evaluation across a larger historical database.