Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
15. Ulusal Tarım Ekonomisi Kongresi, Çanakkale, Türkiye, 6 - 07 Eylül 2023, (Yayınlanmadı)
Food price inflation has received much attention
in Türkiye amidst the current skyrocketing food prices. Because of the relatively
large share of food products in the consumer basket (25.32%) in Türkiye, stabilizing
food prices is a prerequisite for controlling the overall headline inflation
and promoting the welfare of the population. To this end, we employ the Granger
causality analysis and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on
monthly data from January 2015 to December 2022 to examine the demand-pull and
cost-push determinants of food price inflation in Türkiye. On the demand side, food
exports, government expenditures, and money supply; and on the supply side, agricultural
input prices, agricultural GDP, and food imports play key roles in determining
the short- and long-run movement of Türkiye’s food prices. Exchange rates considered
as both a demand and supply side factor also significantly influence the movement
of food prices in Türkiye. These findings suggest that stabilizing the exchange
rates, controlling the money supply, importing food items to fill the gap in
domestic production, increasing investment in agricultural production, and promoting
domestic production of agricultural inputs to reduce the dependency on imports
could play a role in reducing food price inflation in Türkiye.