THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL RAW MATERIALS AND OIL PRICE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Gövdeli T.

EKONOMIKA POLJOPRIVREDA-ECONOMICS OF AGRICULTURE, cilt.69, sa.4, ss.975-989, 2022 (ESCI) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 69 Sayı: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2022
  • Doi Numarası: 10.5937/ekopolj2204975g
  • Dergi Adı: EKONOMIKA POLJOPRIVREDA-ECONOMICS OF AGRICULTURE
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), ABI/INFORM, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, CAB Abstracts, EconLit, Veterinary Science Database, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.975-989
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Agricultural Raw Materials, Oil Price, Real Effective Exchange Rate, ARDL Bounds Test, VECM Causality Test, COMMODITY PRICES, WORLD OIL, CRUDE-OIL, EXCHANGE-RATES, FOOD, COINTEGRATION, LINKAGES, ENERGY, DEMAND, DOLLAR
  • Atatürk Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The motivation of this study is to investigate the relationship between the price of agricultural raw materials and the real exchange rate of the USA and the price of crude oil. For this purpose, annual data from 1990 to 2020 were used. In the study, the cointegration relationship and the elasticity coefficients of the variables were estimated with the help of ARDL bounds test. In addition, the causality relationship was determined with the help of the Granger test. According to the results obtained, it was concluded that there is a cointegration relationship in the models established for agricultural raw materials. In addition, the elasticity coefficient of oil price was found to be positive. According to the Granger causality analysis results, a oneway causality relationship from oil price to agricultural raw materials was determined. We present some policy implications based on our findings in this study.