Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
3rd International Conference On Climate Change / Bali-Indonesia, Balikpapan, Endonezya, 1 - 03 Haziran 2022, ss.268-269
Today, the concept of climate change, which is among the rapidly changing agenda crises
under various headings such as economy and health, is studied intensively by academics.
The environmental problems, floods, excessive precipitation, long-term drought, etc. brought
about by this change directly affect the cities. According to the United Nations data, the rate of
urbanization in the world is increasing rapidly. Globally, the urban population increased from
751 million in 1950 to 4.2 billion in 2018, an increase of 4.6 times. It is estimated that this number
will increase further to reach 6.4 billion in 2050. (UN, 2019). The city, which is a comprehensive
phenomenon, is increasing its hard and impermeable surfaces by becoming more and more
built day by day in order to meet this demand. Accordingly, the proportion of green areas in the
city tends to decrease. Understanding the urban climate system is accepted as the beginning of
the climate risk assessment process. Critical, therefore, is the need for long-term, qualitycontrolled,
observed climate data. Without long-term historical records, the role of climate
variability cannot be adequately defined and climate change projections cannot be supported
by a strong historical basis. The UrbClim model has been developed as a software that serves
exactly this purpose. Microclimate values such as wind movements, frost precipitation areas,
thermal comfort areas and temperature distributions have been determined for the development of landscape planting design adaptation strategies and the production of future climate change
scenarios for the city of Erzurum, where the climate adversely affects the living conditions. A site
usage change map was developed using the Geographic Information System (GIS) for the year
of 2021. For this reason, 50 years of climate data of the city are analyzed using UrbClim model.
Erzurum, the future climate change projections for 2050-2070 will be estimated using the
UrbClim model. For this reason, it is aimed to produce climate adaptation strategies at point
based on the landscape plantin design macroform by analyzing the sample cities in the world,
which have a cold climate, and using the energy efficiently. Considering that climate change
can be mitigated by urban adaptation, temperature and urban heat island density forecasts for
the future were made using the UrbClim model for the city of Erzurum. The potential of future
vegetation for Erzurum city due to climate change has been tested with UrbClim simulations.
Predicting climate change will play an active role in many areas, from designing sustainable
and more livable urban spaces to plant species preference in the future. With the right
measures, it will be possible to design future-oriented thermal comfortable spaces. This study
will serve as an example for cold region in determining climate change and will support
sustainable and livable urbanization.