Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
96th International Atlantic Economic Conference, Pennsylvania, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, 5 - 08 Ekim 2023
Objectives: The problem of foresight in human activity plays a non-trivial role, especially when money is in the background. The ability to anticipate future events can give an investor a sense of security of investment or market advantage over other market participants. However, the key question remains whether the use of quantitative tools allows such an advantage to be built? Is it possible to construct a model that indicates the outcome of a meeting with high probability? There appears to be no such model that can be successfully used for forecasting and planning. Using the terminology of financial markets (E. Fama), if such a model existed the bookmaking market is an efficient market. The questions then remains whether investors should care that the sports betting market is efficient in the sense of information or is it better that it is inefficient? Inefficiency leads to inequality and therefore an informational advantage for some market participants over others, which should result in the possibility to realize supernormal gains. Even from the point of view of market organizers, inefficiency that induces investors to gamble or increases the bookmaker's revenue seems more beneficial. The main goal of the paper is to test the feasibility of building a robust econometric model against which predictions of match results can be made. Thus, an indirect verification of the intermediate efficient market hypothesis for the sports betting market will be carried out. An additional objective is to detect factors that are strongly correlated with match outcomes, which should be observed to increase knowledge of match conditions.
Data/Methods: The study will be conducted in parallel on two autonomous football leagues: the Polish Ekstraklasa and the Türkiye 1. Super Futbol Liga for 2021 and 2022 years. The number of matches in Poland and Turkey accordingly 306 and 380. The research uses panel regression models.
Results/Expected results: The result will be two independent models for Polish and Turkish professional leagues, enabling forecasting of matches' results.