KSÜ Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi-KSU Journal of Agriculture and Nature, cilt.0, sa.0, ss.1-10, 2021 (ESCI)
Although Turkey has significantly increased beef production in the last fifty years via livestock protection and domestic support policies,
self-sufficiency and price stability have not been sufficiently achieved.
Forecasting is essential to analyze the structure of the beef market and evaluate the sector. This study aimed to forecast the beef production of Turkey by considering structural breaks. The data of the study was
time series of beef production for the period 1961-2019 and it was
obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute and, Food and
Agriculture Organization. Data was analyzed and forecasted using
ARIMA Model. The results indicated that ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the best-fitted model and beef production would regularly increase in four
years period and reach 1,133,687 tons in 2023. This research
concluded that despite two structural breaks of beef production in
1983 and 2009, imports and domestic support policies substantially
shaped the trend of beef time series in the last decade in Turkey